Heart Failure Life Expectancy Calculator

Estimate 1-year and 3-year mortality risk in chronic heart failure with the MAGGIC risk score, which combines 13 routinely available clinical variables into one point total.

Quick Facts

Score
MAGGIC risk score, 13 variables
Derived from 39,372 patients across 30 studies (Pocock et al., 2013).
Published range
0 points to about 50 points
Cohort endpoints run from roughly 1.5%/3.9% (1-year/3-year mortality) at 0 points to roughly 84%/99% at 50 points.

Your Results

Calculated
MAGGIC score
-
Total points (higher = higher risk)
Risk group
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Rank within published cohort (1 lowest - 6 highest)
Est. 1-year mortality
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Modeled from published score-outcome curve
Est. 3-year mortality
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Modeled from published score-outcome curve

Ready

Enter the 13 clinical variables, then calculate the MAGGIC score.

About the MAGGIC heart failure risk score

The MAGGIC score (Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure) is a published, validated point-based risk score for chronic heart failure, built from a pooled analysis of 39,372 patients across 30 studies (Pocock et al., European Heart Journal, 2013). It combines 13 routinely collected clinical variables into a single integer score, then relates that score to estimated 1-year and 3-year all-cause mortality.

How the score is built

Points are added for each of the following, using the standard published bands:

  • Age, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and systolic blood pressure: scored on interacting bands - the point value for age and blood pressure depends on which LVEF band a patient falls into (below 30%, 30-39%, or 40% and above), because low ejection fraction changes how strongly age and pressure predict outcome.
  • NYHA functional class: 0 points for Class I, 2 for Class II, 6 for Class III, and 8 for Class IV.
  • Body mass index and serum creatinine: lower BMI (cardiac cachexia) and higher creatinine (worse renal function) each add points on fixed bands.
  • Comorbidities and history: diabetes (+3), COPD (+2), current smoking (+1), and a heart failure diagnosis of 18 months or longer (+2).
  • Sex and medications: male sex (+1); not being on a beta-blocker (+3) and not being on an ACE inhibitor or ARB (+1) each add points, since guideline-directed therapy is associated with better outcomes.

Summing every component gives the total MAGGIC score, which in the derivation cohort ranged from about 0 to the low 50s.

From score to mortality estimate

In the original validation, a score of 0 corresponded to roughly 1.5% 1-year and 3.9% 3-year mortality, while a score of 50 corresponded to roughly 84% 1-year and 99% 3-year mortality. This calculator's percentage outputs are a smooth interpolation anchored to those two published endpoints, not a reproduction of every intermediate row of the original lookup table - treat them as a modeled approximation of the published relationship. The calculator also reports which of six published risk groups the score falls into: the first four groups are risk quintiles (scores 0-16, 17-20, 21-24, and 25-28), and the top two groups are the highest risk deciles (29-32 and 33 or above).

When to consult a professional

This tool performs the standard MAGGIC point arithmetic and an approximate outcome mapping for education and planning. It is not a diagnosis and does not replace a cardiologist or heart-failure specialist, who can weigh the score alongside natriuretic peptide levels, imaging, functional testing, and the individual's full history and trajectory.

Frequently Asked Questions

What formula does this calculator use?
It uses the MAGGIC risk score (Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure), a published, validated point-based score built from 39,372 patients across 30 studies. It adds integer points for age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction, NYHA class, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, serum creatinine, diabetes, COPD, current smoking, heart failure duration, and beta-blocker and ACE inhibitor or ARB use.
What do the mortality percentages mean?
They are modeled estimates of 1-year and 3-year all-cause mortality, interpolated from the published cohort endpoints (about 1.5% and 3.9% at 0 points, rising to about 84% and 99% at 50 points). They describe the outcome of a group of similar patients in the derivation studies, not a guaranteed timeline for any one person, and should be discussed with a cardiologist or heart-failure specialist.
What counts as a healthy or low-risk MAGGIC score?
In the original cohort, scores of 16 or below fell in the lowest risk quintile and scores of 33 or above fell in the highest risk decile. Lower total points reflect better preserved ejection fraction, milder symptoms, and fewer comorbidities, but the score should be read alongside the full clinical picture, not as a stand-alone diagnosis.

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