Understanding exponential growth prediction
Exponential growth happens when a quantity increases by a constant percentage each period rather than by a constant amount. Because each period's growth is applied to a larger base than the one before, the total accelerates over time. This calculator predicts the future value of such a quantity from three inputs: the starting value, the growth rate per period, and the number of periods.
The formula
The discrete exponential growth model is:
A = P(1 + r)t
- A = predicted (future) value
- P = starting value, P₀
- r = growth rate per period as a decimal (enter 5 for 5%, which the tool converts to 0.05)
- t = number of periods
Each period multiplies the running total by the factor (1 + r). Growing $1,000 at 5% per year for 10 years gives 1000 × 1.0510 ≈ $1,628.89. A negative rate models exponential decay: entering −10% shrinks the value by a factor of 0.9 each period.
Discrete vs. continuous growth
The formula above compounds once per period. When growth is truly continuous — compounded every instant — the model becomes A = P·ert, where e ≈ 2.71828. Continuous compounding always yields a slightly larger result for the same nominal rate: at r = 5% for one year, (1.05) = 1.05 versus e0.05 ≈ 1.05127. This calculator uses the discrete form, which matches how most real-world rates (annual interest, yearly population figures, per-round metrics) are quoted.
Doubling time and the Rule of 72
A hallmark of exponential growth is a fixed doubling time that does not depend on the starting value. The exact doubling time is t = ln(2) / ln(1 + r). The Rule of 72 is a fast mental estimate: divide 72 by the percent rate. At 6% per period the rule gives 72 ÷ 6 = 12 periods, while the exact value is ln(2)/ln(1.06) ≈ 11.90 periods — close enough for quick checks.
Common reference points
- 7% ≈ doubles in ~10 periods (ln 2 / ln 1.07 ≈ 10.24). A long-run stock-market rule of thumb.
- 2% ≈ doubles in ~35 periods (≈ 35.0). Typical of slow population or inflation growth.
- 100% growth rate means the quantity doubles every single period (multiplier 2).
- Bacterial growth is a classic case: a colony dividing every 20 minutes has r = 100% per 20-minute period.