About the Padua Prediction Score
The Padua Prediction Score is a risk-assessment model that identifies hospitalized, non-surgical (medical) patients at elevated risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) — deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. It was derived and validated by Barbar and colleagues in 2010 from a cohort of over 1,000 acutely ill medical inpatients, and it is referenced in clinical VTE-prevention guidelines as a way to decide who needs pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis during admission.
How the score is built
The score sums points across 11 risk factors, each scored as present or absent:
- 3 points each: active cancer (local or metastatic disease, or chemotherapy/radiotherapy within the prior 6 months), previous VTE (excluding superficial vein thrombosis), reduced mobility (bedrest with bathroom privileges for at least 3 days, due to the patient's limitations or a physician's order), and a known thrombophilic condition (such as antithrombin, protein C or S deficiency, factor V Leiden, prothrombin G20210A mutation, or antiphospholipid syndrome).
- 2 points: recent trauma or surgery within the past month.
- 1 point each: age 70 years or older, heart and/or respiratory failure, acute myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke, acute infection and/or a rheumatologic disorder, obesity (BMI 30 kg/m2 or higher), and ongoing hormonal treatment.
Adding every present factor's points gives a total from 0 to 20. There is no partial credit — each factor is either fully present or absent.
Interpreting the result
A total of 4 or more points classifies the patient as high risk for VTE; a total below 4 classifies the patient as low risk. In the original validation cohort, symptomatic VTE occurred in roughly 11% of high-risk patients who received no prophylaxis, compared with about 0.3% of low-risk patients. High-risk classification is the trigger clinicians use to weigh pharmacologic or mechanical thromboprophylaxis against bleeding risk; it is not itself a treatment order.
When to consult a professional
This tool performs the standard Padua point arithmetic for education and documentation. It does not diagnose VTE, does not weigh bleeding risk, and does not prescribe prophylaxis. Any decision about anticoagulation or mechanical prophylaxis should be made by the treating clinician, who can weigh the score alongside bleeding risk, renal function, and the full clinical picture.