How the EORTC Recurrence and Progression Risk Tables Work
The EORTC (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer) risk tables estimate how likely a non-muscle-invasive bladder tumor (stage Ta or T1) is to come back or advance to muscle-invasive disease after it has been removed by transurethral resection (TURBT). Sylvester and colleagues built the tables from a pooled analysis of 2,596 patients enrolled in 7 EORTC trials, scoring six routinely available pathology and history factors and matching the resulting score to an observed probability of recurrence and progression at 1 and 5 years. This calculator reproduces those two 2006 EORTC scoring tables and their published probability bands. It is an educational estimate, not a diagnosis or a treatment order — discuss your specific pathology report and surveillance plan with a urologist.
The six risk factors and their point values
Each factor contributes a different number of points to the recurrence score and to the progression score, because the two outcomes are driven by different biology:
- Number of tumors: single = 0 recurrence / 0 progression points; 2-7 tumors = 3 / 3; 8 or more = 6 / 3.
- Tumor diameter: under 3 cm = 0 / 0 points; 3 cm or larger = 3 / 3 points.
- Prior recurrence rate: primary tumor (no prior recurrence) = 0 / 0; 1 or fewer recurrences per year = 2 / 2; more than 1 per year = 4 / 2.
- T category: Ta = 0 / 0 points; T1 = 1 / 4 points.
- Concurrent carcinoma in situ (CIS): absent = 0 / 0; present = 1 / 6 points.
- Grade (WHO 1973): G1 = 0 / 0; G2 = 1 / 0; G3 = 2 / 5 points.
Adding the first number in each pair gives the total recurrence score (0-17); adding the second number gives the total progression score (0-23). Notice how T category, CIS, and grade barely move the recurrence score but dominate the progression score — that reflects the trial data showing those features are stronger predictors of invasive progression than of simple recurrence.
From score to risk: the probability tables
Each total score falls into one of four published bands. For recurrence: a score of 0 corresponds to a 15% chance of recurrence at 1 year and 31% at 5 years; 1-4 points to 24%/46%; 5-9 points to 38%/62%; and 10-17 points to 61%/78%. For progression: a score of 0 corresponds to 0.2% at 1 year and 0.8% at 5 years; 2-6 points to 1%/6%; 7-13 points to 5%/17%; and 14-23 points to 17%/45%. These are population-level probabilities from the original trial cohort, not a certainty for any one patient — they are most useful for comparing the relative risk of different tumor profiles and for planning how intensive follow-up cystoscopy or adjuvant intravesical therapy should be.
Limitations and when to seek specialist input
The 2006 EORTC tables were built largely from patients who did not routinely receive a second ("re-resection") TURBT or maintenance BCG therapy, both of which are now standard for higher-risk tumors — as a result, the tables tend to overestimate risk for patients treated with modern protocols, particularly for progression. Newer tools (the EORTC tables for BCG-treated patients and the Spanish CUETO model) refine these estimates for that population. This calculator is for education and discussion, not for staging, prescribing, or replacing a urologist's individualized surveillance and treatment plan.