How the Effective Duration Calculator works
Effective duration measures how much a bond's price is expected to move for a given change in interest rates. Instead of deriving the sensitivity analytically from the bond's coupon and maturity (the way modified duration does), effective duration is built from three actual — or model-generated — prices: the bond's current price, its price if yields fell by a small amount, and its price if yields rose by that same amount. That makes it the standard tool for bonds whose cash flows can change as rates move, such as callable bonds, putable bonds, and mortgage-backed securities.
The formula
For a current price V0, a price V- after yields fall by Δy, and a price V+ after yields rise by the same Δy (expressed as a decimal, e.g. 0.50% = 0.005), effective duration is:
D = (V- − V+) / (2 × V0 × Δy)
Because bond prices actually curve rather than move in a straight line as yields change, a second term — effective convexity — corrects the duration estimate for larger rate moves:
C = (V+ + V- − 2 × V0) / (V0 × Δy²)
Combining both terms gives a more accurate estimate of the percentage price change for a target yield shift Δytarget:
%ΔP ≈ −D × Δytarget + 0.5 × C × Δytarget²
Worked example
Suppose a bond currently prices at $1,000 (V0). Re-pricing it with yields down 0.50% gives $1,035 (V-), and re-pricing with yields up 0.50% gives $967 (V+). With Δy = 0.005: D = (1,035 − 967) / (2 × 1,000 × 0.005) = 68 / 10 = 6.80 years. Effective convexity works out to C = (967 + 1,035 − 2,000) / (1,000 × 0.005²) = 2 / 0.000025 = 80.0. For a 100 basis point (1%) rise in rates, the duration-plus-convexity estimate is %ΔP ≈ −6.80 × 0.01 + 0.5 × 80 × 0.01² = −0.068 + 0.004 = −6.4%, versus a duration-only estimate of −6.8% — the convexity term softens the loss slightly, as it typically does for a straightforward, option-free bond.
Reading the result
- Effective duration is the approximate percentage price change for a 1 percentage point (100 bp) change in yield. A duration of 6.80 means roughly a 6.8% price move (in the opposite direction) per 1% yield change, for small moves.
- Effective convexity is positive for most option-free bonds, meaning price gains from falling yields slightly exceed price losses from an equal rise in yields — a favorable curvature. Convexity can turn negative for callable bonds and many mortgage-backed securities, since the issuer's or borrower's option caps the price upside.
- Bigger Δy shocks amplify convexity's role. For small rate moves, duration alone is usually enough; for larger moves, the convexity term matters more.
Effective vs. modified duration
Modified duration is calculated analytically from a bond's yield, coupon, and maturity, and it implicitly assumes the bond's cash flows never change no matter how rates move. That assumption holds for plain fixed-rate, option-free bonds, where effective and modified duration are typically very close. It breaks down for bonds with embedded options: a callable bond's issuer may redeem it early if rates fall, and a mortgage-backed security's prepayment speed changes with rates. Effective duration sidesteps the problem by using actual re-priced values — from a pricing model that accounts for those options — at shifted yields, so it reflects the real cash-flow behavior rather than an assumption that it stays fixed.