How to Estimate What a Seed Packet Will Produce
Every seed packet tells you the count, but never the full picture. Germination rate, bed size, and plant spacing together determine how many plants you actually end up with — and how much that translates into harvested produce. This calculator works through that math so you can plan your garden before you plant, not after half the bed sits empty.
Plants to Grow = MIN(Seeds × Germination Rate, Bed Capacity)
Bed Capacity = floor(Bed Length ÷ Spacing) × floor(Bed Width ÷ Spacing)
Harvest (lbs) = Plants to Grow × Yield Per Plant
Grocery Value = Harvest × Price Per Pound
Understanding Germination Rate
Germination rate is the percentage of seeds from a packet you can expect to actually sprout under good conditions. Seed packets sold in the US must meet minimum germination standards set by the Association of Official Seed Certifiers — typically 75–90% for common vegetables. Fresh seed from a reputable supplier will often hit the high end; seed stored for more than a year, or kept in a warm humid location, will drop. A packet labeled "80% germination" with 50 seeds produces roughly 40 seedlings. Common reference rates to use when you do not have packet data:
- Tomatoes, peppers: 80–90%
- Lettuce, spinach, kale: 80–85%
- Carrots, parsnips: 65–75% (lower than most; sow more thickly)
- Beans, peas: 80–90%
- Brassicas (broccoli, cabbage): 80–85%
- Cucumbers, squash, melons: 90–95%
- Old seed (>2 years): subtract 15–25% from the above
Matching Seed Count to Bed Capacity
One of the most common planning mistakes is buying a single large packet for a small bed, only to discard hundreds of surplus seedlings — or buying a small packet that leaves a third of the bed bare. The calculator flags both scenarios. Bed capacity is determined by dividing each dimension by the recommended plant spacing and multiplying the grid result. A 4 ft × 8 ft bed with 12-inch spacing holds exactly 32 plants. At 6-inch spacing it holds 128. Spacing recommendations exist for airflow, root competition, and disease prevention — overcrowding to use more seed is a trade-off, not a free gain.
Grocery Value: What Your Garden Is Actually Worth
Translating harvest weight into a grocery equivalent makes garden math concrete. A 4 × 8 bed of tomatoes planted at 24-inch spacing holds 8 plants; at 3 lbs per plant average that is 24 lbs, worth around $48–$72 at typical 2026 grocery prices. Bush beans at 6-inch spacing in the same bed yield 32 plants and 64–96 lbs of beans — roughly $130–$190 in store value. These are planning numbers, not guarantees; actual yield depends on soil, weather, pest pressure, and variety.